Expectation of Fed ra上海乌托邦s an over-reaction

Herd instinct is the human nature to follow the crowd and act collectively – and market expectation always does not change smoothly but t

上海乌托邦ends to over-react to new information. The current market expectation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts is a case in point.

On June 20, the latest meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee shrugged off the market’s high expectation of rate cuts and gave no clear policy signal confirming a cut.

We believe the market had overreacted in forming its expectation of rate cuts after the Fed swiftly adopted a dovish tone from the end of last上海乌托邦

year. Specifically, we believe market expectation – it has formed since May – of a change in policy stance, as well as the timing and degree of rate cuts, may not fully materialize.

We will elaborate on this now. It should be noted the misconceived expectation of Fed rate cuts could ind上海乌托邦

uce a drastic reversal in investor sentiment and asset price fluctuations, if the Fed’s moves miss expectation.

Firstly, the market may have overestimated the degree of the Fed’s policy stance change. A clear rate cut signal may not emerge until the end of this month.上海乌托邦

According to Bloomberg, the Fed funds futures market has recently priced in a 98.5-percent chance that the Fed will lower rates at least once this year.

上海乌托邦品茶微信However, the Fed’s earlier forward guidance only indicated the end of monetary policy n

ormalization, which does not necessarily point to the beginning of a rate cut cycle. Also, the Fed h

as removed the word “patient” from the latest FOMC meeting statement but did not confirm a rate-cut stance.

We believe that because of the following two reasons, the Fed is still on cautious lookout, and t

here will not be any clear rate cut signal or plan until the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month.上海乌托邦品茶微信

Externally, the Fed is expected to stand pat until trade dispute uncertainties ease, to give itself an advantage in its game with the US Administration.

The Fed would put itself in an unfavorable position if it initiated a rate cut before majo上海乌托邦品茶微信

r uncertainties over the China-US trade dispute are removed, because the pre-emptive move may enc

ourage the US Administration to escalate the trade dispute, which will in turn pose a dilemma to the Fed.

That’s because any escalation in trade tensions will, on the one hand, d

ssipate and even offset the easing boost from rate cuts and force the Fed to accelerate the上海乌托邦品茶微信

rate cut pace. On the other hand, the escalation could further fuel imported inflation, which will significantly reduce the

Fed’s room for rate cuts. The Fed will then face a policy-making dilemma of whether to further cut rates.

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We value the Chinese market,where we must guarante

tee steady business growth. In the future, we will increase investment in AI applications in the finance and manu

facturing sector, enhance our AI technology, such as machine learning, natural language processing and deep learning, consolidate customer rela

tionships, as well as cultivate the new generation of AI talent for China,” He from SAS China said.

Since World War II, globalization came in two stages. From 1945 to roughly 1975, the United States, Western Europe, and Japan

achieved steady economic growth, with the benefits of that growth spread widely throughout the population. In F

rance, this period is called “30 glorious years” and in Germany it is known as the “economic miracle”.

The second stage of globalization started in the late 1970s and has continued until today with a process of reform and open

ing-up not only in China but in countries of the former Soviet Union and in India.

This has been great for the world. China alone has lifted more than 850 million peopl

e out of dire poverty. But it has also increased competition faced by workers and companies.

The partial globalization of 1945-1975 worked great for average workers in the West. For much of this period, a young perso

n could get a high-paying and apparently secure job in a factory that would allow him to live a middle-income lifestyle.

It’s very hard to believe now, but in 1980, the US city with the highest average wage was Flint, Michigan, followed closely by Detroi

t. Other leading cities in terms of wages were Chicago, Houston, Milwaukee, Youngstown and Cleveland – all

of which were centers of industry and manufacturing. At that time, San Jose, the center of then quite small Silicon V

alley was fourth, San Francisco sixth, and capital Washington was eighth. New York City did not make the top 10.

Many people in the US and Western Europe look back nostalgically on those 30 years aft

er WWII when artificial limits on global competition protected extremely high-paying manufacturing jo

bs. It is very sad to see only empty, rusting factories where thousands of people used to work.

It’s tempting to use tariffs or other protectionist measures to try to

retain the companies that provide these high-paying manufacturing jobs. But, most o

ften the protections just lead to unproductive companies, declining innovation, and slowing GDP growth.

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China will channel 上海会所品茶微信s from the Belt and

d Road Initiati上海会所品茶微信ve to Africa, he said, adding that both partners should respect market pri

nciples and ensure economic and social benefits to improve the continent’s capacity for sustainable development.

Wang said more than 880 cooperation projects will be carried out in the next three years.

In a news conference on Tuesday afternoon, Vice-Minister of Com

merce Qian Keming said that in their next step, China and Africa will carry out capacity-buil

ding cooperation and promote infrastructure, trade and investment cooperation. China will increase imports fro

m Africa to ensure the continent shares in the huge Chinese market, he added.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni said the eight major initiatives have helped address the de

velopment challenges facing African countries and will help guide their cooperation in the right direction.

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He presented his priva上海千花坊女神会所arge Dragon stam

mps at the Chi上海千花坊女神会所na 2019 World Stamp Exhibition, which took place in Wuhan, Hubei province from June 11 to 17, und

er the patronage of the Federation Internationale de Philatelie. The eight frames include different issues an

d drafts that record the stamps’ design process, and collecting them has taken him over 20 years.

“This set of stamps is particularly difficult to find, and I believe my collection is unpar

alleled because it includes a lot of stamps known to be the only ones of their kind left in the world,” Sun says.

This is the first time that his set of Large Dragon stamps has been displayed at a world st

amp exhibition, and they won him the Large Gold Medal in the traditional philately category.

Just like Sun, other philatelists and philatelic organizations from 85 countries

and regions brought their stamp collections to exhibit and compete in the international event.

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She said whoever as上海会所品茶微信rship should be stro

strong and popu上海会所品茶微信lar enough and able to connect with European citizens

who showed the highest turnout in 20 years in the elections for the European Parliament in late May.

“They should be able to work in an efficient manner with world leaders and be strong enough to galvani

ze worldwide support. We live in a very challenging world, and Europe needs strong and effective leadership,” Islam said.

There have been major disagreements between leaders of the two major member states. German Chancellor Angela Merkel favors the process of lead candi

date, known as Spitzenkandidaten in German. She supported Manfred Weber, the lead candidate of the center-ri

ght EPP, the largest bloc in the European Parliament, a bloc of which Merkel is a member.

But French President Emmanuel Macron and some other EU leaders oppose Weber to replace Jean-Claude Juncker as president of European Commission.

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Literature fest sparks rural rebootLiterature Prize anliang Li

An event set up by film director Jia Zhangke featuring leading proponents of a school of writing from Shanxi aims to place the province on China’s literary map.

Jiajiazhuang village in Fenyang, Shanxi province, sits around 600 kilometers southwest of Beijing.

Once known for its collective economy that helped draw its population out of poverty, it has now gained another label than

ks to film director Jia Zhangke, who was born in 35ang in 1970, just a short distance from the village.

Jia has devoted much of his time to regenerating the area’s cultural legacy, not only through movies, but also through literature.

To do that, Jia set up the first Lyuliang Literature Festival, which was held from May 9 to 16

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ommerce ministry to protect Chinese companies’ interests

hina is drafting a list of foreign parties considered “unreliable enti

ties” that harm the interests of Chinese companies, said the Ministry of Commerce on Friday.

Detailed measures of the plan are to be disclosed at a later date.

The list will target companies, people and organizations that fail to abide by market rules, violate th

e spirit of contract, block Chinese companies for non-commercial reasons, and severely violate Chinese co

mpanies’ legitimate rights, said Gao Feng, the ministry’s spokesman, in a media briefing on Friday.

“Due to the increasing uncertainties in the global economy, including

the rising trade protectionism and unilateralism, the multilateral trading system is facing s

evere challenges and regular international commercial activities have been disrupted,” Gao said.

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Xinjiang to launch up to 100 trains for tourists

As tours to Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region have become increasingly popular among tourists from home and abroad, local

authorities have announced a plan recently to launch as many as 100 special trains for tourists from May to October.

The local railway authorities will step up cooperation with other part

s of the country to boost Xinjiang’s tourism development, according to Huang Ti

ngfen, deputy general manager of Xinjiang Railway Tourism Development Group.

The trains will provide easier access to both the southern and northern parts of Xinjia

ng, said Huang. It will also be more convenient for Xinjiang residents to travel to other parts of the country.

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Officials urged to create safe, stable societyand

Xi underlines building professional forces at key meeting on public security

President Xi Jinping urged the nation’s public security forces to fulfill their responsibilities and missions in the new era to cr

eate a safe and stable social environment that enables people to feel an even stronger sense of security.

Xi, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Cent

ral Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, made the remark at a t

wo-day national conference on public security work, which concluded in Beijing on Wednesday.

He called for building highly professional public security forces that are loyal to the Pa

rty, serve the people, promote impartiality in law enforcement and remain disciplined.

Under the new historical conditions, public security departments must

adhere to the overall national security outlook and a people-centered approach, Xi said.

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China has exercised great restraint and goodwill in

trying to maintain stable relations with the US,” he said.

Li Haidong, a professor of US studies at China Foreign Affairs Universi

ty, said Washington has pushed a hard line in relations with Beijing in recent years.

“The Taiwan question is much more complicated and nonnegotiable,” Li said.

“If the US side continues to misinterpret the one-­China policy, it will irreparably damage Sino­-US ties,” he warned.

The US Senate will have to vote on the act before it can become law. The time of the vote is unknown.

“The consensus among US officials is to be tough on China, and room for rational option

s is rapidly shrinking as overconfidence and rash actions become the new norm,” he said.

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